Population Growth Rate of 1% in the year 2000: An Unattainable Goal

Abstract

This article attempts to demonstrate that the quantitative goal of Mexican population policy of reducing the natural growth rate to 1% by the end of this century is unattainable. The methodology utilized leads to the conclusion that in order to reach this goal, the net reproductive rate (NRR) would have to decrease to 0.667%, a rate below that of the replacement rate. In addition, the article points out that when the goals are reached during the next century, dramatic changes in the age structure will take place, whether the same conditions of fertility and mortality prevail or wheter the replacement level (NRR = 0) is recovered.