Redistribution of migratory attractiveness among Mexican municipalities, 2000-2020

Abstract

This article reveals the spatio-temporal redistribution of migratory attractiveness among Mexican municipalities and the convergence/divergence trends for 2000-2020 and the long term. We avoided using a set of economic or quality of life indicators to represent migratory attractiveness, because their selection determines the results. Instead, we tested the recent intermunicipal net migration rates (TNMR) as an indicator of the conditioned revealed preference of migrants regarding the choice of destinations that offer them more favorable or less adverse conditions (whether real or perceived) for living/working, for both themselves and their families. We consider that the migration behavior revealed by the TNMR is more reliable than using variables selected by experts and that the revealed preference of migrants always occurs within a framework of major restrictions (including expulsion factors that generate involuntary migration). We used Kernel analysis and Markov chains. The profile of the long-term situation of the TNMR is almost the opposite of the one in 2000, which implies a process of redistributive convergence of migratory attractiveness: the least attractive municipalities at the beginning of the study period have recovered their capacity to attract migrants. The convergence process is weak in the long term.