The Obsolescence of Population Projections

Abstract

This article explores the development of the methodology used in the past for projecting populations and briefly describes the different procedures employed. It draws attention to the problem of failing to exploit the advantages of computers to design population projection models that would be better suited to the requirements of national planning. The lack of an adequate design for projecting populations has meant that the majority of population projections for the world's countries only offer the number of people existing in the country for each five-year age group, and for every five calendar years. This not only implies theoretical aspects that are unacceptable today, but fails to provide the information continuously required by a country. The design of an effective population projection model should take advantage of the enormous capacity of today's computers to incorporate existing information to provide better simulations of the annual changes that take place in a country's population and to update population projections as soon as the supposed facts depart from social reality. Finally, a good projections program must have the capacity to use the projected population and to undertake all kinds of social, economic and educational projections so that they can be considered by the various secretariats of state.