Are the last tendencies in urban change a fair indication of the urban future?

Abstract

Faced with the United Nations (U.N.) calculations of urban population size in the year 2000, as well as their prognostications on the growth of Third World cities, this article questions the validity of data used to predict urban change in the Third World. The authors then analyze the feasibility of making valid generalizations on urban change in the Third World in view of the diversity of: economic structures, rate of population growth, per capita income levels and population size. For this they include a separate analysis on Latin America, Asia and Africa of some of the factors influencing urban change from 1960 till the beginning of 1980. Using this review as a basis they evaluate the validity of U.N. calculations of future levels of urbanization by countries or of future populations of certain Third World cities.