Published 2013-01-01
Keywords
- time series,
- compatibility,
- multivariate forecasts,
- var (p) model,
- forecast horizon
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Copyright (c) 2013 Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
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Abstract
This article uses multivariate time series to show that it is feasible to undertake population forecasts using this perspective and shows how they are satisfactory according to data from the Population and Housing Census 2010 for the Mexico City Metropolitan Zone (MCMZ). It explains the methodology used to make predictions based on disaggregating techniques, adjustments and multivariate forecast estimates. The methodological tools capable of making effective forecasts are regarded as essential to developing a wide range of public programs whose primary goal is sustainable development.