Internal Migration and Cities in Latin America: Effects on the Composition of the Population

Abstract

Due to its selectivity, migration affects the composition of the population of the places of destination and origin. Census micro data are processed to obtain matrices of the indicators of migratory flows, which, together with novel procedures, are used to estimate the net, exclusive effect of migration on the composition by sex, age and education of twelve cities in seven countries in the region. This effect is subsequently divided between the effect caused by the exchange with other cities and that produced by the exchange with the rest of the system of human settlements in each country. Below, and as a separate exercise, the effect is divided into that caused by immigration and emigration. The main results of the research are: a) total internal migration (between cities and with the rest of the system of human settlements) continues tending to feminize cities, although no longer because of the selective attraction of women but because of the selective emigration of men; b) internal migration tends to strengthen the intermediate age band and to compress the representation of those under 15 and senior citizens in cities. The combination of these effects on the age structure of the population of the cities increases their so-called “demographic bonus”; c) internal migration tends to slightly depress the educational attainment of cities (even once age has been controlled for); since the exchange with other cities is primarily responsible for this effect, it is inappropriate to attribute it to migration from the countryside; d) as immigration tends to raise the average educational attainment of cities, the reduction observed is due to emigration. These results update, modify and increase the complexity of the existing view of internal migration on cities. Although each city has its specificities and policy recommendations must be based on the reality of each one, migration tends to have mixed effects on cities. On the one hand, they benefit from the effect of certain attributes (such as the demographic bonus) yet in other aspects (such as average educational attainment) they are weakened. Be that as it may, the results suggest that when policies designed to influence migration, in addition to those that are ill-advised and incompatible with international agreements on population involve measures that restrict the free movement of persons, have become irrelevant since the qualitative effects of migration depend mainly on emigration.