Mexico City’s Probable Urban Expansion. A Pessimistic Scenario and Two Alternatives for the Year 2020

Abstract

According to the forecasts of the National Population Council (Conapo), by 2020, the Mexico City Metropolitan Zone (MCMZ) will house a population of over 21 million in­habitants. Assuming that these estimates are correct, it is important to predict where this growth will take place and how it will affect the urban structure. This essay analyzes three scenarios of metropolitan expansion drawn up on the basis of different assumptions of population density and estimates through a spatial statistical analysis using the Geographical Information System. The results reveal an expansion of the urban area by the year 2020, according to the scenario, of between 38,000 and 56,000 hectares. The authors conclude that models of joint metropolitan public administration are required to control the form of expansion and regulate MCMZ land uses.